Possible Winter Storm For Some

[Dustin Wilcox]

The same storm that is plaguing the West Coast bringing heavy rain to CA and snows of up to 5+ Ft along with winds of over 80mph will eject into the plains region by early next week. As mentioned in the Warm-up thread this system will bring with it very warm air, however it looks as though the really warm air will stay JUST to our South. The models have been all over with the exact track of the system (as they always are that far out) however now that the system is on shore and radiosondes can fully sample the atmosphere, model solutions will become more reliable. For the first time the GFS is hinting at what COULD BE a winter storm for portions of NE. This mornings run has cyclogenisis taking place further north than previous model runs indicated, based on this mornings run Monday Night into Tuesday could bring some nasty weather and certainly strong winds to the CNTRL portion of the state. I don't have much time right now to look deep into things, I have got to go shoot me a doe, but later tonight (after the 0Z runs come in at about 10) I will post in more detail about the latest trends and will also provided some graphics.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Tonight’s runs have come back with a completely different solution, with even large discrepancies between the different 0Z runs; though the TV guys won't admit it, currently forecasting how this system will evolve is pretty useless until some sort of consistency between the models is established, I could come up with a forecast based on tonight’s data, but its pretty useless when by tomorrow morning the new data will say something completely different.

[tmrschessie]

Good job.

Did you get your deer? Tom

[Dustin Wilcox]

No deer yet, I see some every night, the majority are just young little deer; then I walk back to my grandmas house only to see the yard littered with tons of deer, oh well just means I get too keep hunting. As for the storm system it looks like most of the heavy precip will miss most of NE to the South and East, maybe just a shower or two early in the Day Mon in E NE. There looks like there might be another small shot at cold rain on Tuesday across the Southern portion of the state.

Tonights Precip fcst for Tuesday