Weekend of 12/22-23

[Dustin Wilcox]

Why this is still a long ways out, it at least deserves mentioning as many will be traveling during this time period. Current long range models continue the active pattern bringing another strong system across the Central US next weekend before tracking it North-East and bringing possibly another Nor-Easter to the New England area by Christmas. Its still too early to determine if this system will impact NE with more snow, but either way it should bring at least another temporary cold snap and trends need to be monitored for what could be another snow maker. Current models point towards snow for NE but I don't want to buy into that solution just yet, I will try to keep this thread updated with the latest trends throughout the coming week.

[Dustin Wilcox]

After trending towards a solution that would leave much of NE high and dry for this weekend, this mornings GFS is back on track with what would be the next major storm for the NE area. Currently looks like E NE would feel the greatest impacts. This morning GFS almost hints at what would be near blizzard conditions across E NE and W IA. It has Lee Cyclogenesis taking place on Friday and then moves the surface low East across KS before taking it North-East towards the great Lakes region. This type of surface low track is the perfect setup for big NE snows. Also worth noting that if this storm track verifies expect windy conditions as well, something we have not had to deal with these last couple of systems. Still plenty of time for things to trend another direction, and undoubtedly things will change, I just wanted to update the latest trend. Again as of this mornings model run, Saturday looks to be a nasty windy heavy snow day across E NE and much of IA. Stay tuned as I will update the latest trends throughout the week.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Just some graphics from this afternoons non-operational GFS.

These Links will not be Valid for proper times after 3 a.m. Tomorrow Morning

Here is 6 hours Accum precip forecast. This shows 6 hour amounts upwards of 1+" possible expect at least 12:1 snow fall ratios, you do the Math

Forecast Precip around Midnight Friday
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_1...PTHK_108HR.gif

6 hours upto 7 a.m. SAT
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_1...PTHK_114HR.gif

Forecast precip from 7 a.m. to 1p.m.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_1...PTHK_120HR.gif

Here is 850mb forecast
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_8...MPRH_120HR.gif

Thats indicating winds speeds of 50-60 kts at 850mb, thats not to far above the surface by the time that mixes down thats indicating wind speeds of 35-40 mph

Look at the dry air being pulled up into MO from the Desert SW just gives an idea of how strong the surface low is forecast to be.

500mb just gives a perspective on the strength of the trough
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_5...VORT_114HR.gif

This is still 100+ Hours out so this forecast is far from any guarantee, however it is becoming apparent a major winter storm will impact somewhere in the plains this weekend, and while it currently looks like NE will be impacted severely there is still much that could change based on the exact strength and track of the system. Stay Tuned.

[goose h8r]

OK OK OK, enough is enough here.

Its starting to feel like it did last Feb and early March.

Here let me give you the forecast...

Today...COLD
Tommorrow...COLD
Wed...COLD
Thurs...COLD
Fri...COLD
Sat...BLIZZARD
Sun...BLIZZARD

Repeat until July.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Exactly why buying into a Forecast this far out is risky, new model runs have significantly decreased the impact that this system will have on NE. Instead of bringing the trough across the rookies and cutting it off over the Central plains, they now have the trough splitting into two pieces of energy. While this would still mean some wind, snow and colder temperatures it would be nothing compared to what yesterdays solutions had. Obviously things could trend the other direction again but as of this morning, this system doesn't appear to be as big of player as earlier solutions indicated. Expect model volatility to continue until tomorrow Nights runs at which time solutions should begin to be able to be trusted.

NWS (National Weather Service) is remaining pretty hush, hush given model differences as well, this is all they had to say regarding this weekends system in their FCST DISC typically they would have a couple detailed paragraphs regarding specifics.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NO AGREEMENT ON SPECIFICS AMONG THE MODELS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Updated disscussion from NWS, they are also noticing that the models are trending towards less of an impact for NE, mentioning this in their latest FCST.

MOISTURE APPEARS
TO BE ON TAP TO INTERACT WITH...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT...BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AS HEAVY AS THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING
TROUBLE WITH TIMING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VARIATIONS
IN THE MODEL GENERATED QPF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FASTER SPEED OF SYSTEM MAY HELP CURB SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS.

[tmrschessie]

Thanks Dustin, appreciate the updates. Tom

[honkerboner]

goose h8r said is best

[Dustin Wilcox]

Models remain inconsistent with what will occur this weekend, after making it appear that a near blizzard would impact the area early in the week to having nothing for NE mid-week, they are finally coming to some agreement. The NAM has the system moving through early Saturday before it slides off to the East and strengthens becoming a big player for MO into the Ohio Valley were the storms impact will be much greater. Current models have only light snow falling across Much of E NE, starting in the early morning hours Saturday with flurries lasting through much of the day, there are some indications that a very narrow band of moderate snow may work East across the region, though given the models inconsistencies and poor performance as of late I'm not real confident in this actually verifying making snowfall totals tough to forecast at this point, though the NWS is currently calling for 1-3" for much of E NE, though from what I'm currently seeing in the models I think most would be lucky to see more than flurries, though if that narrow band of moderate snow does happen to move over your area you could pick up a quick couple of inches, just tough to currently tell if and where that band will setup. Regardless of rather or not you see any accumulating snowfall (I have a feeling many won't) winds will be somewhat of a issue on Saturday as the low deepens just to our East.

NWS issued this disscussion this evening

SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN ENDING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. IN ADDITI ON TO THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND...STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[Dustin Wilcox]

This mornings models still have a narrow band of snow moving across the area Saturday, this graphic represents the forecasted amount of precip at 1 p.m. Sat.
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_10...RPTHK_30HR.gif
Still looks like light snow and flurries will be possible much of the day with a narrow band of moderate to maybe heavy snow working through some areas, still looks like 1-3" is a good amount for most of the area, it's hard to rule out some isolated areas seeing a little more if you get that band to work over your area, appears most likely across Extreme E and SE NE. It still appears that the winds will be more of a burden than the snowfall at this time, typically we would be dealing with considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow with this much snow already on the ground, however the ice we had combined with the melting and refreezing at night the last couple of days has left the snow pack pretty hard, so most of the blowing snow will be from any new snow that we are able to pick up Saturday.

[Dustin Wilcox]

The NWS in Valley/Omaha is using a little bigger wording now (probably warranted given strong winds that will occurr) Though they are now calling for as much as 3-5" across SE NE, you can see their latest statment here...
National Weather Service Text Product Display I still don't buy into the 3-5" MAYBE across Extreme SE NE, but even that I question.

EDIT: Well they have now lowered their totals to 1-3 again. I still think most will be lucky to see 1" the winds are going to be the story tomorow.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Extreme SE NE is under a winter storm warning as the thick fog present tonight could lead to ice acccumaltion by morning, then bands of snow could work into the area early Sat, combined with 40mph. Warning Text: This is only for SE NE

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary