Exactly why buying into a Forecast this far out is risky, new model runs have significantly decreased the impact that this system will have on NE. Instead of bringing the trough across the rookies and cutting it off over the Central plains, they now have the trough splitting into two pieces of energy. While this would still mean some wind, snow and colder temperatures it would be nothing compared to what yesterdays solutions had. Obviously things could trend the other direction again but as of this morning, this system doesn't appear to be as big of player as earlier solutions indicated. Expect model volatility to continue until tomorrow Nights runs at which time solutions should begin to be able to be trusted.
NWS (National Weather Service) is remaining pretty hush, hush given model differences as well, this is all they had to say regarding this weekends system in their FCST DISC typically they would have a couple detailed paragraphs regarding specifics.
Quote:
|
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NO AGREEMENT ON SPECIFICS AMONG THE MODELS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
|